Predictions for Blackout 4

As we’ve mentioned before, battle rap predictions are pretty much impossible. Speculate all you want, but anyone who claims to speak with authority on what will happen in a sport this unpredictable is either a psychic or a blowhard. (Note: psychics aren’t real.)

So here’s our breakdown of what might happen at KOTD’s Blackout 4 this weekend. Some of it serious, some less so.

PAT STAY VS DIZASTER

From what we can tell, opinions on who will win this one are split almost evenly, but everyone is passionate and confident that their side will win. There are some detractors who say this won’t be a great battle, but frankly, we don’t believe them. Obviously the danger is that Diz will freestyle too much or Pat will run of out quality content before the end of the three five-minute rounds. But both Pat and Diz know the main stage well and have both been in their share of massive clashes. (Keep in mind that they’re in nine of the 14 most-viewed KOTD rap battles on YouTube.)

And this is the battle they’ve both wanted for a long time. Pat took the battle with Arcane on the condition that he got Dizaster next and And Diz is clearly motivated, saying on Twitter that he’s bringing “90% written” content. Facing Pat in Toronto is also arguably his biggest challenge yet in KOTD and a rare chance for him to be an underdog.

If Dizaster’s vlog is any indication, he’ll be using the “who-would-you-rather-have-as-champ?” angle, comparing his engagement with the scene to Pat’s disinterest in it. This angle has worked in the past (PoRICH vs Sketch Menace, Diz vs Rich and Pat vs Arcane) but there are problems this time:

1. The angle is getting played out.
2. The title doesn’t (always) go to the guy who is more popular.
3. The angle only works if the judges agree that you’d make the better champ.

So as for our prediction … it’s still too soon to tell. But we expect that whoever “wins” the face-off at the press conference will also take the battle. At the WD4 press conference Pat punked Arcane repeatedly and Diz overpowered every point Arsonal made, and both went on to win their battles. Seeing them face off will be an interesting test of their confidence going into the battle.

But if Pat does emerge victorious, we predict he’ll vacate the title soon after.

BENDER VS BIG T

Bender’s winning this one. He hasn’t been in front of a KOTD audience since his WD3 battle with Pesci and the fans will go bananas for him. He’ll feed off the crowd energy and it’ll push his aggression up compared to some of his recent lacklustre showings in other leagues. T’s a strong writer and will land a few haymakers but he’s never been outside of his URL comfort zone before and we expect that will hurt him here.

Even in the event of a 3-0 bodybag, URL diehards will call it debatable and Norbes will refuse to admit it to Bishop Brigante, instead mumbling something about multis and Canadian bias.

Oh, and Bender will make a Prop Joe reference.

DDSS VS STEP EASY

This one will crown a Ground Zero champion. If you haven’t been following the GZ Grand Prix, you can catch up with our coverage here.

DDSS is the probably the MC with the most to prove on the entire card. He won the GZGP Western bracket despite some chokes and he’s a definite underdog against the more-seasoned Step Easy.

In a lot of ways, this matchup is similar to the semi-final between DDSS and Megadef. Both Step and Megadef are superior writers to DDSS and their flow is far more intricate. Still, DDSS beat Mega using comedy and projection to connect with the crowd, which is a style that could work again for him in the final.

If Step didn’t learn a lesson from watching Mega lose, he could suffer the same fate.

We’ll say Step Easy on a 3-2 decision though.

OTHER PREDICTIONS:

-There will be a ton of celebrities in the building. Deadmau5, Epic Meal Time and U.K. grime pioneer Wiley have all confirmed their presence, and there are rumours that a member of Wu-Tang might attend. Drake’s always a possibility too.

-Eurgh (and by extension Don’t Flop) is going to get put through the ringer. WD4′s anti-URL tone emerged from the negativity surrounding the Summer Madness 3 card. One of the biggest stories in battle rap right now is the leadership crisis in the U.K. league (even though it may be mostly sorted). The most likely attackers will be Shotty and Dizaster.

-Bodybag of the event: Uno Lavoz, although we’re not sure which side of it he’ll be on.